{"id":7921,"date":"2024-10-03T10:43:44","date_gmt":"2024-10-03T08:43:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/allasorias.hu\/hirek\/?p=7921"},"modified":"2025-05-09T15:58:47","modified_gmt":"2025-05-09T13:58:47","slug":"mi-varhato-husz-ev-mulva-a-munka-vilagaban","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/allasorias.hu\/hirek\/mi-varhato-husz-ev-mulva-a-munka-vilagaban\/","title":{"rendered":"Mi v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 h\u00fasz \u00e9v m\u00falva a munka vil\u00e1g\u00e1ban?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>A szakemberek arra figyelmeztetnek, hogy hamarosan kevesebben dolgoznak majd \u00e9s j\u00f3val t\u00f6bb lesz a nyugd\u00edjas kor\u00fa. Ez pedig s\u00falyos k\u00e9rd\u00e9seket vet fel, amelyre megold\u00e1st kell tal\u00e1lni.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A roml\u00f3 demogr\u00e1fiai helyzet mind itthon, mind k\u00fclf\u00f6ld\u00f6n foglalkoztatja a k\u00f6zbesz\u00e9det. A nyugd\u00edjrendszer jelenlegi m\u0171k\u00f6d\u00e9si elve (feloszt\u00f3-kirov\u00f3 rendszer, azaz a foglalkoztatottak tartj\u00e1k el a nyugd\u00edjasokat) a mostani form\u00e1ban nehezen fenntarthat\u00f3 \u00e9s k\u00e9rd\u00e9ses a m\u0171k\u00f6d\u00e9s\u00e9nek j\u00f6v\u0151je is, mivel az \u00e1tlagnyugd\u00edj egyre jobban t\u00e1volodik az \u00e1tlagkeresett\u0151l. Szint\u00e9n k\u00e9rd\u00e9ses, hogy h\u00e1nyan fognak dolgozni a j\u00f6v\u0151ben, sz\u00fcks\u00e9ges-e mark\u00e1ns vend\u00e9gmunk\u00e1s t\u00f6meg a GDP n\u00f6veked\u00e9s fenntart\u00e1s\u00e1hoz? Ezekre a k\u00e9rd\u00e9sekre kereste a v\u00e1laszt a GKI Gazdas\u00e1gkutat\u00f3 Zrt. legfrissebb, a magyar munkaer\u0151piac j\u00f6v\u0151j\u00e9r\u0151l sz\u00f3l\u00f3 elemz\u00e9se.<\/p>\n<p>A k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 20 \u00e9vben (2024-et is bele \u00e9rtve) nagyj\u00e1b\u00f3l 2 milli\u00f3 600 ezer f\u0151 fogja \u00e1tl\u00e9pni a jelenlegi nyugd\u00edjkorhat\u00e1rt jelent\u0151 65. \u00e9let\u00e9vet, amivel szemben legfeljebb 1 milli\u00f3 900 ezer f\u0151 fog bel\u00e9pni a munkaer\u0151piacra (\u00e1tlagosan 20 \u00e9ves korukban). \u00cdgy h\u00fasz \u00e9v m\u00falva legal\u00e1bb 700 ezer f\u0151vel lesz kevesebb a gazdas\u00e1gilag akt\u00edv kor\u00fa Magyarorsz\u00e1gon, ha a jelenlegi nyugd\u00edjkorhat\u00e1r lesz akkor is \u00e9rv\u00e9nyben. \u00cdgy a foglalkoztat\u00e1s 530 ezer f\u0151vel cs\u00f6kken.<\/p>\n<h2>A kies\u0151 munkaer\u0151t t\u00f6bbf\u00e9lek\u00e9pen is lehet ellens\u00falyozni<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>A k\u00fclf\u00f6ld\u00f6n \u00e9l\u0151, nagyr\u00e9szt magasan k\u00e9pzett munkaer\u0151 hazavonz\u00e1sa,<\/li>\n<li>a nagy mennyis\u00e9g\u0171 fizikai munk\u00e1t ig\u00e9nyl\u0151 \u00e1gazatok visszaszor\u00edt\u00e1sa (munkaer\u0151 \u00edgy m\u00e1s, hat\u00e9konyabb ter\u00fcletekre \u00e1ramolhat),<\/li>\n<li>valamint a munkaer\u0151tartal\u00e9k tov\u00e1bbi bevon\u00e1sa.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A jelenlegi 300 ezer f\u0151s potenci\u00e1lis munkaer\u0151tartal\u00e9k tov\u00e1bbi bevon\u00e1sa azonban er\u0151sen k\u00e9rd\u00e9ses: ebb\u0151l a sz\u00e1mb\u00f3l le kell vonni t\u00f6bbek k\u00f6zt az eg\u00e9szs\u00e9g\u00fcgyi vagy fizikai akad\u00e1lyok miatt munkak\u00e9pteleneket, a m\u00e1r foglalkoztatott, de feket\u00e9n dolgoz\u00f3kat. \u00cdgy m\u00e1r csak egy sz\u0171k \u00e9s nehezen el\u00e9rhet\u0151 r\u00e9teg vonhat\u00f3 be, amivel r\u00f6vid t\u00e1von nem nagyon n\u00f6velhet\u0151 a munkaer\u0151piacon tev\u00e9kenyked\u0151k sz\u00e1ma. A cs\u00f6kken\u0151 foglalkoztat\u00e1s elvben m\u00e9rs\u00e9kli a keresett\u00f6meget is.<\/p>\n<p>A tov\u00e1bbiakban a 2023-as kereseteket vessz\u00fck alapul. A 2023-as adatok szerint harminc\u00f6t \u00e9ves korig n\u0151 az \u00e1tlagkereset, ut\u00e1na stagn\u00e1l vagy kiss\u00e9 cs\u00f6kken. Ez a j\u00f6v\u0151ben nem re\u00e1lis, ez\u00e9rt 35 \u00e9ves kor felett m\u00e1r nem sz\u00e1molunk keresetcs\u00f6kken\u00e9ssel (felmen\u0151 rendszerben). A KSH szerint az elm\u00falt 20 \u00e9vben a re\u00e1lb\u00e9rn\u00f6veked\u00e9s \u00e9vi 3,1% volt, \u00edgy a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 h\u00fasz \u00e9vre is ez alapj\u00e1n becsl\u00fcnk. \u00c9rthet\u0151, hogy a p\u00e1lyakezd\u0151k \u00e9s a nyugd\u00edjba vonul\u00f3k nem azonos fizet\u00e9ssel rendelkeznek.<\/p>\n<p>A k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 20 \u00e9vben a munkaer\u0151piacra bel\u00e9p\u0151, illetve az azt elhagy\u00f3k j\u00f6vedelm\u00e9nek k\u00fcl\u00f6nbs\u00e9ge a 2024-es -227 milli\u00e1rdr\u00f3l 2043-ra -1425 milli\u00e1rdra n\u0151 re\u00e1l\u00e1ron. A foglalkoztatottak keresett\u00f6mege az idei k\u00f6zel 33 ezer milli\u00e1rd forintr\u00f3l 63 ezer milli\u00e1rd forintra n\u0151 2043-ra, teh\u00e1t a foglalkoztatottak sz\u00e1m\u00e1nak 530 ezer f\u0151vel, vagyis 11,5%-kal val\u00f3 cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se ellen\u00e9re majdnem megdupl\u00e1z\u00f3dik. Ez a keresett\u00f6meg v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s maximuma, mivel sz\u00e1m\u00edt\u00e1sba kell venni a korai hal\u00e1loz\u00e1sok, a rokkantos\u00edt\u00e1sok, illetve a magyar \u00e1llampolg\u00e1rok kiv\u00e1ndorl\u00e1s okozta foglalkoztat\u00e1s cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s\u00e9t is.<\/p>\n<h2>Magasabb iskol\u00e1zotts\u00e1g, kevesebb fizikai munk\u00e1t v\u00e9gz\u0151<\/h2>\n<p>A keresett\u00f6meg\u00e9nek megk\u00e9tszerez\u0151d\u00e9se k\u00e9t f\u0151 hat\u00e1snak tulajdon\u00edthat\u00f3. Egyr\u00e9szt a re\u00e1lkereset b\u0151v\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9nek, m\u00e1sr\u00e9szt az iskol\u00e1zotts\u00e1g n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9nek tudhat\u00f3 be. A legfeljebb alapfok\u00fa v\u00e9gzetts\u00e9g\u0171ek ar\u00e1nya 2003 \u00e9s 2023 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt 26%-r\u00f3l 13%-ra cs\u00f6kkent, am\u00edg a fels\u0151fok\u00faak\u00e9 15%-r\u00f3l 29,8%-ra n\u0151tt. A munkaer\u0151piacra bel\u00e9p\u0151k magasabb iskol\u00e1zotts\u00e1ga magasabb b\u00e9rszintet is jelent, \u00e9s ez a trend fennmarad a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 id\u0151szakban is. Vagyis arra kell felk\u00e9sz\u00fclni (ahogy 2010 \u00f3ta megfigyelhet\u0151), hogy 2043-ig a foglalkoztatottak k\u00f6z\u00f6tt egyre kevesebb lesz a fizikai munk\u00e1t v\u00e9gz\u0151.<\/p>\n<p>Ennek k\u00f6vetkezt\u00e9ben az eleve v\u00e1ltoz\u00f3 strukt\u00far\u00e1j\u00fa, magasabb b\u00e9reket eredm\u00e9nyez\u0151, magasabb hozz\u00e1adott \u00e9rt\u00e9ket teremt\u0151 munkahelyekre lenne \u00e9rdemes berendezkedni, \u00e9s annak l\u00e9trehoz\u00e1s\u00e1t t\u00e1mogatni. Ezt a jelenlegi, gazdas\u00e1gfejleszt\u00e9st c\u00e9lz\u00f3 t\u00e1mogat\u00e1sok nem t\u00fckr\u00f6zik. Az ipari \u00f6sszeszerel\u0151\u00fczemek \u00e9s az akkumul\u00e1torgy\u00e1rak f\u0151leg alacsony k\u00e9pzetts\u00e9get ig\u00e9nyl\u0151 munkahelyeket teremtenek, a szellemi \u00e9s vezet\u0151i feladatk\u00f6r\u00f6k jelent\u0151s r\u00e9sz\u00e9t pedig a k\u00fclf\u00f6ldi anyac\u00e9g munkat\u00e1rsai t\u00f6ltik be. Annak \u00e9rdek\u00e9ben, hogy a az elker\u00fclhetetlen demogr\u00e1fiai folyamatokhoz alkalmazkod\u00f3 gazdas\u00e1ga legyen Magyarorsz\u00e1gnak, komolyabb paradigmav\u00e1lt\u00e1sra van sz\u00fcks\u00e9g &#8211; \u00edrja a GKI Gazdas\u00e1gkutat\u00f3 Zrt. sajt\u00f3k\u00f6zlem\u00e9nye.<\/p>\n<p>Forr\u00e1s: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hrportal.hu\/hr\/ki-fog-majd-dolgozni-a-magyar-munkaeropiac-kovetkezo-evei-20241002.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">hrportal.hu<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A szakemberek arra figyelmeztetnek, hogy hamarosan kevesebben dolgoznak majd \u00e9s j\u00f3val t\u00f6bb lesz a nyugd\u00edjas kor\u00fa. Ez pedig s\u00falyos k\u00e9rd\u00e9seket vet fel, amelyre megold\u00e1st kell tal\u00e1lni. A roml\u00f3 demogr\u00e1fiai helyzet mind itthon, mind k\u00fclf\u00f6ld\u00f6n foglalkoztatja a k\u00f6zbesz\u00e9det. A nyugd\u00edjrendszer jelenlegi m\u0171k\u00f6d\u00e9si elve (feloszt\u00f3-kirov\u00f3 rendszer, azaz a foglalkoztatottak tartj\u00e1k el a nyugd\u00edjasokat) a mostani form\u00e1ban nehezen [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7923,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[200],"tags":[270,396],"class_list":["post-7921","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-munkaeropiac","tag-munkaero","tag-nyugdij"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.0.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A szakemberek arra figyelmeztetnek, hogy hamarosan kevesebben dolgoznak majd \u00e9s j\u00f3val t\u00f6bb lesz a nyugd\u00edjas kor\u00fa. Ez pedig s\u00falyos k\u00e9rd\u00e9seket vet fel\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Juh\u00e1sz P\u00e9ter\"\/>\n\t<meta name=\"keywords\" content=\"munkaer\u0151,nyugd\u00edj\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/allasorias.hu\/hirek\/mi-varhato-husz-ev-mulva-a-munka-vilagaban\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO (AIOSEO) 5.0.0.1\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hu_HU\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"AllasOrias.hu | H\u00edrek-lapszemle | \u00dczleti h\u00edrek az \u00e1ll\u00e1s \u00e9s a munka vil\u00e1g\u00e1b\u00f3l\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Munka vil\u00e1ga h\u00fasz \u00e9v m\u00falva: mi v\u00e1rhat\u00f3?\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A szakemberek arra figyelmeztetnek, hogy hamarosan kevesebben dolgoznak majd \u00e9s j\u00f3val t\u00f6bb lesz a nyugd\u00edjas kor\u00fa. 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