{"id":2515,"date":"2019-02-05T12:46:36","date_gmt":"2019-02-05T12:46:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/allasorias.hu\/hirek\/?p=2515"},"modified":"2019-02-05T12:46:36","modified_gmt":"2019-02-05T12:46:36","slug":"mikor-lassulhat-a-gazdasagi-novekedes-hazankban","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/allasorias.hu\/hirek\/mikor-lassulhat-a-gazdasagi-novekedes-hazankban\/","title":{"rendered":"Mikor lassulhat a gazdas\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9s haz\u00e1nkban?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Magyarorsz\u00e1gon 2019 m\u00e9g a gazdas\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9s \u00e9ve lehet, de k\u00e9s\u0151bb ez nem folytat\u00f3dhat, \u00a0a munkaer\u0151piaci fordulat 2020-ban m\u00e1r bek\u00f6vetkezhet \u2013 der\u00fcl ki a Raiffeisen Bank negyed\u00e9ves gazdas\u00e1gi elemz\u00e9s\u00e9b\u0151l. T\u00f6r\u00f6k Zolt\u00e1n, a Raiffeisen Bank vezet\u0151 elemz\u0151je szerint a k\u00fcls\u0151 k\u00f6rnyezet egyre kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 lesz t\u00e1mogat\u00f3 a magyarorsz\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9s sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra, a gazdas\u00e1gpolitika pedig a kor\u00e1bbin\u00e1l kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 lesz k\u00e9pes t\u00e1mogatni a gazdas\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9st.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Az id\u00e9n 3,4%-os gazdas\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9s prognosztiz\u00e1lhat\u00f3, a k\u00f6zeli j\u00f6v\u0151ben a k\u00fcls\u0151 k\u00f6rnyezet tov\u00e1bbi roml\u00e1sa val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00edthet\u0151, \u00edgy nagy az es\u00e9lye annak, hogy 2020-2021 sor\u00e1n \u2013 a glob\u00e1lis gazdas\u00e1gi ciklus lefel\u00e9 tart\u00f3 \u00e1g\u00e1ban \u2013 Magyarorsz\u00e1g m\u00e1r csak 2-3% k\u00f6r\u00fcli m\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u0171 n\u00f6veked\u00e9st tud produk\u00e1lni. T\u00f6r\u00f6k Zolt\u00e1n 2020-ra v\u00e1rja a munkaer\u0151-piaci fordulatot: a kereslet m\u00e9rs\u00e9kl\u0151d\u00e9s\u00e9t, a munkan\u00e9lk\u00fclis\u00e9gi r\u00e1ta enyhe emelked\u00e9s\u00e9t, \u00e9s a b\u00e9rn\u00f6veked\u00e9si \u00fctem lelassul\u00e1s\u00e1t. A szakember hangs\u00falyozta: a t\u00e9rs\u00e9g gazdas\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9t tov\u00e1bbra is f\u0151leg a gyenge k\u00fcls\u0151 kereslet f\u00e9kezi, amelyhez a harmadik negyed\u00e9vben a g\u00e9pj\u00e1rm\u0171gy\u00e1rt\u00e1s \u00e1tmeneti megtorpan\u00e1sa is hozz\u00e1j\u00e1rult. Az eur\u00f3\u00f6vezeti infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 decemberre az olaj\u00e1rak cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s\u00e9vel nyolc havi m\u00e9lypontj\u00e1ra, 1,6%-ra s\u00fcllyedt vissza. Fokozatosan er\u0151s\u00f6dik ugyanakkor a b\u00e9rdinamika: a harmadik negyedben m\u00e1r 2,1%-os volt a fajlagos b\u00e9rk\u00f6lts\u00e9g \u00e9ves v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s\u00e1nak m\u00e9rt\u00e9ke, amely t\u00f6bb mint \u00f6t \u00e9ves maximumot jelent. A kamatemel\u00e9si v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sok ugyancsak cs\u00f6kkentek az elm\u00falt id\u0151szakban az eur\u00f3\u00f6vezetben. Az optimist\u00e1bb forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvek szerint nem 2019 harmadik, hanem csak az utols\u00f3 negyed\u00e9v\u00e9ben fog el\u0151sz\u00f6r kamatot emelni az EKB, de a pesszimista v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sok alapj\u00e1n erre ink\u00e1bb csak 2020 els\u0151 fel\u00e9ben ker\u00fclhet sor. Az Egyes\u00fclt \u00c1llamokban elfogyott az ad\u00f3cs\u00f6kkent\u00e9sek f\u0171t\u00f6tte gazdas\u00e1gi b\u0151v\u00fcl\u00e9s lend\u00fclete: \u00e9v v\u00e9gi konjunkt\u00faramutat\u00f3k visszaes\u00e9se a v\u00e1rtn\u00e1l nagyobb lassul\u00e1sra utal a kiskeresked\u0151k nagy r\u00e9sz\u00e9nek csal\u00f3d\u00e1st kelt\u0151 \u00fcnnepi \u00e9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u00e9seivel egyetemben. T\u00f6bb lett viszont az \u00faj munkahely: 1999 \u00f3ta a harmadik legnagyobb b\u0151v\u00fcl\u00e9st \u00e9rt\u00e9k el 2,6 milli\u00f3 \u00faj poz\u00edci\u00f3 megnyit\u00e1s\u00e1val.<\/p>\n<p>Forr\u00e1s: amdala.hu<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Magyarorsz\u00e1gon 2019 m\u00e9g a gazdas\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9s \u00e9ve lehet, de k\u00e9s\u0151bb ez nem folytat\u00f3dhat, \u00a0a munkaer\u0151piaci fordulat 2020-ban m\u00e1r bek\u00f6vetkezhet \u2013 der\u00fcl ki a Raiffeisen Bank negyed\u00e9ves gazdas\u00e1gi elemz\u00e9s\u00e9b\u0151l. T\u00f6r\u00f6k Zolt\u00e1n, a Raiffeisen Bank vezet\u0151 elemz\u0151je szerint a k\u00fcls\u0151 k\u00f6rnyezet egyre kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 lesz t\u00e1mogat\u00f3 a magyarorsz\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9s sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra, a gazdas\u00e1gpolitika pedig a kor\u00e1bbin\u00e1l kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 lesz k\u00e9pes [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2516,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[198,200],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2515","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazdasag","category-munkaeropiac"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.0.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Magyarorsz\u00e1gon 2019 m\u00e9g a gazdas\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9s \u00e9ve lehet, de k\u00e9s\u0151bb ez nem folytat\u00f3dhat, a munkaer\u0151piaci fordulat 2020-ban m\u00e1r bek\u00f6vetkezhet \u2013 der\u00fcl ki a Raiffeisen Bank negyed\u00e9ves gazdas\u00e1gi elemz\u00e9s\u00e9b\u0151l. 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